
A new meta-analysis involving over 240,000 people has found that consuming more ultraprocessed foods increases the risk of premature death. The study, coauthored by Carlos Augusto Monteiro, an emeritus professor at Brazil’s University of São Paulo, examined the risk of dying between the ages of 30 and 69—a period considered premature. The findings revealed that for every 10% increase in calories from ultraprocessed foods, the risk of early death rose by nearly 3%.
Monteiro, who introduced the term "ultraprocessed" in 2009, developed the NOVA classification system, which groups foods into four categories based on their level of processing. The first group includes unprocessed or minimally processed foods like fruits, vegetables, and eggs. The second consists of culinary ingredients such as salt and oils. The third covers processed foods, like canned goods, which combine ingredients from the first two groups. The fourth group, ultraprocessed foods, contains little to no whole foods and is made from chemically altered ingredients, often with synthetic additives to enhance taste and texture.
Monteiro has argued that the human body may not fully adapt to these products, reacting to them as harmful, which could impair bodily systems over time. However, the food industry has pushed back against these claims. Sarah Gallo of the Consumer Brands Association called the study misleading, warning that demonizing convenient and affordable food options could lead to reduced access to nutrient-dense foods and worsen health disparities.
Previous research has also linked ultraprocessed foods to serious health risks. A February 2024 study found that higher consumption increased the risk of cardiovascular-related death by 50% and mental health disorders. Other studies have connected these foods to higher risks of anxiety, obesity, sleep disorders, type 2 diabetes, depression, and early death. Even a small increase—just one serving or 10% more ultraprocessed foods per day—was associated with greater risks of cognitive decline, stroke, and certain cancers.
In the U.S., where ultraprocessed foods make up nearly 55% of the average diet, researchers estimated that eliminating them entirely could have prevented over 124,000 premature deaths in 2017. Countries with lower consumption, like Colombia and Brazil, would also see fewer deaths if ultraprocessed foods were removed from diets. However, experts caution that the study does not prove causation. Nerys Astbury, a nutrition scientist at the University of Oxford, noted that the research methods cannot confirm whether deaths were directly caused by ultraprocessed foods.
Fang Fang Zhang, a nutrition epidemiologist at Tufts University, pointed out that the study’s assumption of zero ultraprocessed food consumption is unrealistic, potentially overestimating their impact. Meanwhile, statistician Stephen Burgess acknowledged that while the study doesn’t prove harm, the consistent associations across different countries suggest ultraprocessed foods may play a significant role in poor health outcomes.
As ultraprocessed foods dominate modern diets—accounting for up to 70% of the U.S. food supply—this research adds to growing concerns about their long-term effects. While more studies are needed to confirm causation, the evidence continues to highlight the potential dangers of relying too heavily on these convenient but heavily processed products.

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